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John DeShazier: Key ingredients to a Saints victory vs. the Bucs

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  1. The New Orleans Saints allowed 175 rushing yards on 34 carries to Carolina in their last game, and are surrendering 137.8 per game this season. That doesn't bode well for them with their next game being against Tampa Bay running back Doug Martin, the second-leading rusher in the NFL (1,133 yards and four touchdowns on 227 carries this season, including 427 yards on 66 carries the last three games). Martin's production has taken pressure off Buccaneers rookie quarterback Jameis Winston and helped Tampa Bay win three of its last four games. If the Saints don't corral him, it probably will be a long, hot day in Tampa.
  1. Speaking of Winston (221 of 337 for 2,877 yards and 17 touchdowns), he only has thrown four of his 11 interceptions in the last eight games. The hopeful part for the Saints is that he has two picks in the last two games, and has been sacked six times in them. He should be a bit more stationary as a target than was Cam Newtonfor the Saints last week, so getting to Winston could be a tad easier. Defensive end Cam Jordan(eight sacks) has a sack in each of the last two games; he needs some help in that area.
  1. When last the Saints saw Tampa Bay, in Week 2 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, the Buccaneers sacked Drew Breesfour times, hit him several more and punished the Saints quarterback to such a degree that Brees missed New Orleans' next game, the only start he has missed due to injury as a Saint. That can't happen again. Rookie left guard Andrus Peatis improving, and he'll need to be at his best so far to help the Saints control the Tampa Bay pass rush. The Bucs could be shorthanded and without defensive tackle Gerald McCoy, who had a sack in the first game, and right defensive end Jacquies Smith, who had the best game of his two-year career against the Saints: Three sacks, two quarterback hits, two forced fumbles and a tackle for loss. Even if they are available, the Saints may have rediscovered some offensive rhythm – 206 yards and three touchdowns on their final five possessions of the second half. But the only way it carries over is if Brees isn't similarly pounded like the first game.

4. Brandin Cooksis putting together an extremely productive second season. He's 17th in the league in receiving yards (840) and also has seven touchdowns among his 61 receptions. With six games of at least 79 receiving yards, four games with at least six catches and six catches of at least 30 yards, he has established himself as Brees' most reliable, explosive target. Tampa Bay only allows 242.5 passing yards per game, about 60 less than the Saints average as a passing offense. Cooks will be huge in terms of loosening up the Bucs secondary, and hopefully he can get an assist from the run game. Tampa Bay gives up 94.7 rushing yards per game, and New Orleans averages 94.4. A little more production will make life easier for Cooks and the receivers.

  1. Worth noting for the Saints (and speaking of the run game), Mark Ingramquietly had topped his production from last year, when he went to the Pro Bowl. He totaled 1,109 yards from scrimmage in 2014; this year, with four games remaining, he had 1,174 (769 rushing, 405 receiving) and already had career highs in receptions (50) and receiving yards. He was sixth in the league in yards from scrimmage, and has half of the Saints' 12 rushing touchdowns. Ingram is done for the year, so against the Bucs, the Saints likely will increase the workload of C.J. Spiller, Tim Hightowerand possibly rookie Marcus Murphy.If New Orleans can get a lead against the Bucs, Hightower especially might be called upon to  help the team control the clock.
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